FLARECAST

THE SOLAR FLARE THREAT

A solar flare is a flash of brightness on the surface of the sun. During a flare a huge amount of energy (up to a billion hydrogen bombs) is released, heating the solar plasma, accelerating particles and propagating into space. Big flares and other manifestations of eruptive solar activity are the main drivers of space weather near the Earth. – After 8 minutes, a flare may cause radio blackouts. – After 20 minutes, a flare may cause a solar radiation storm. – After 2-4 days, a flare, followed by a coronal mass ejection, may cause a geomagnetic storm. Solar flares can affect satellite operations, aviation and communication technologies.

Until recently, solar activity wasn’t considered a notable threat for our planet. Since the end of the 20^th century, however, we have become more vulnerable due to space-relying technologies our society depends on. Should a very strong solar storm hit the Earth, it may not only cause damage to space-based technology but also to communication systems, transportation networks, pipelines, and power grids on the ground. Reliable space weather predictions are vital for taking mitigation measures in time.

The FLARECAST consortium developed an automated forecasting system for solar flares. The team integrated virtually every solar flare-predicting parameter into an open online application programming interface, flexible enough to facilitate future expansion. We identified the best performers by employing a variety of statistical and machine learning techinques, including standard methods such as Linear Discriminant Analysis, Clustering and Regression Analysis, Neural Networks, as well as innovative approches including Multi-Task Lasso, Simulated Annealing and Random Forest. A robust exploration work package identified promising new predictors and connected flare prediction to other manifestations of solar eruptive activity such as coronal mass ejections.

FLARECAST BENEFIT